Two products, one view
System-imbalance direction in MW and the imbalance energy price in EUR/MWh, forecast in parallel, so direction and cost are assessed together rather than in isolation.
System forecasts
Forecasts for the Swiss energy imbalance system and price.
Anticipate the direction of the imbalance system and the price of each deviation, before the quarter-hour closes – and position where the system pays for balance, instead of absorbing imbalance cost at settlement.
The 2026 single-price regime turned imbalance from a pure cost into an asymmetry: a position that supports the system is paid the imbalance energy price, and a position against it pays that price – direction matters, not size. Yet most desks observe the price only after settlement, once the quarter-hour has passed and the exposure is fixed. Orvio forecasts both the direction and the price while the quarter-hour is still open, moving the decision to the point at which it can still be acted upon.
How it works
Orvio produces two linked forecasts for every quarter-hour. The system imbalance (MW) indicates whether the control area is heading short or long; the imbalance energy price (EUR/MWh) quantifies the cost of each deviation. The two are modeled jointly by machine-learning models trained on Swiss market data, so direction and value are read from a single, consistent view.
Each forecast is issued at four horizons: day-ahead, hour-ahead and the next quarter-hour before gate closure, then an intra-quarter T-0 nowcast that keeps refining the view inside the running quarter-hour – for physical dispatch once the market has closed. As delivery approaches, the forecast converges toward the value Swissgrid ultimately settles.
82% directional hit-rate when Orvio forecasts the system at least 100 MW short or long.
- 68%
- Any signal
- 76%
- Forecast ≥ 50 MW
- 82%
- Forecast ≥ 100 MW
- 90%
- Forecast ≥ 200 MW
T-15 system-imbalance forecast vs realized Swissgrid data, last 90 days (about 2,240 quarter-hours at the 100 MW threshold), against a 54% naive baseline. The stronger the forecast signal, the more reliable the direction.
Capabilities
Four horizons
A day-ahead view for planning, an hour-ahead view that refines it, a quarter-hour view for the final positioning decision before gate closure, and an intra-quarter T-0 nowcast for physical dispatch – battery and curtailment – after the market has closed.
Fifteen-minute resolution
A value for every quarter-hour of the Swiss control area, refreshed every 15 minutes, around the clock.
Governed model selection
Forecasts are scored continuously against realized Swissgrid data, and model promotion follows defined governance rather than ad hoc changes.
Every value is stamped with its creation time and lead time, providing a complete audit trail of what was forecast and when. The feed covers the Swiss control area and is available on the Orvio platform or via REST API for integration into existing systems.
What changes in practice
For desks trading or dispatching against the Swiss system, the price shifts from a post-settlement outcome to a forward input. A strong short or long signal supports a sized, deliberate position; a weak signal is a reason to hold rather than speculate.
See what flexibility could earn.
Book a demo and see the signal on live data, applied to real assets.
Pricing scales with the portfolio. Book a demo for a quote.
FAQ
How accurate is the forecast?
Over the trailing 90 days, the quarter-hour-ahead forecast identified the direction of the Swiss system correctly in 82% of the quarter-hours where it signaled a clear short or long of at least 100 MW, against a 54% naive baseline. Accuracy increases with signal strength. Every forecast is scored against realized Swissgrid data, so the figure is reproducible rather than self-reported.
Which horizons do you cover?
Four: day-ahead, hour-ahead, quarter-hour, and an intra-quarter T-0 nowcast. The quarter-hour view is calibrated for live positioning decisions before gate closure; the T-0 nowcast refines the view inside the running quarter-hour for physical dispatch – battery and curtailment – once the market has closed; the day-ahead view supports planning.
How do I get the data?
Two options: directly on the Orvio platform, or via a REST API with scoped keys for integration into existing systems. Both deliver identical timestamping and scoring.
Is this specific to Switzerland?
Yes. Orvio forecasts the Swiss control area and the imbalance energy price natively, on Swiss system data, and is built for desks that settle against Swissgrid.